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Fire Umbra GuardianTier 2
at Scry Games PTM Store Championship
decks
1
(2.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
6
3-2-1
overall winrate
58.3%
ELO-adjusted winrate
57.6%
avg ELO +4.0 per match
expected value
50.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
50.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1182
· median 1182
· range 1182–1182
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
936
Q1 1142
Q3 1341
1668
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aggro | 11.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.4% | +11.8 |
| Wind Allies | 11.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 9.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.6% | -10.3 |
| Water Fractal | 9.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 4.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.2% | +16.4 |
| Water Astra Cleric | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 2.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 50.4% | +0.7 |
| Water Slimes | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Zander | 2.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 59.7% | +15.5 |
| Wind Arcane | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Ciel | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Fire Umbra Guardian decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
